Missouri Governor Matt Blunt had a tough fight ahead of him before he dropped out of another bid for Missouri's top position. Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon was well into the fight when Republicans searched for a candidate to battle. A number of people were willing to leave their posts including Lt. Governor Peter Kinder who slinked back for a repeat for his seat.
At a huge disadvantage already a brutal primary with Sarah Steelman, the Missouri Republican Party was the elephant digging a hole with its trunk when it came to producing a viable fight for the state's top seat. It appears the disjointed Republican party never emerged with the thrust needed to stop Nixon's Momentum.
Polling over the last few months shows a Nixon lead in the double digits except for a brief period where the Republicans, particularly John McCain, gained momentum. While John McCain was up by 9% Hulshof still failed to upstage Nixon even marginally in polling numbers.
Compare:
McCain Vs. Obama: Missouri Presidential Race Polling Stats
Nixon Vs. Hulshof: Missouri Governor's Race Polling Stats
The press release below was written at a time when the race seemed much shinier for McCain - one for the scrapbook.
Public Policy Polling Press Release August 20. 2008: Full Study PDF
McCain, Nixon lead in Missouri
Raleigh, N.C. – John McCain has expanded his lead over Barack Obama in Missouri,***The closest poll between the two candidates is the Facebook Friends Indicator which shows Hulshof below Nixon but still in the running.
according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
McCain’s advantage is 50-40, a seven point increase from PPP’s July poll, which showed
him leading by just three points.
Obama’s biggest issue is with white voters, who support McCain by a 56-35 margin.
“There aren’t enough black voters in Missouri for Barack Obama to win it if he can’t
make things more competitive among white voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “That’s going to be his challenge if he wants to have any chance at
winning the state.”
McCain leads across every age group, and has the advantage with both men and women.
Obama will need a good margin of victory with women if he is to take Missouri but for
now that’s not coming through.
The news is better for Democrats in the Governor’s race. Jay Nixon leads Republican
Kenny Hulshof 48-42. In other statewide races Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and
Secretary of State Robin Carnahan hold double digit leads, while in the open seats for
Attorney General and Treasurer Democrat Chris Koster and Republican Brad Lager each
hold a narrow advantage.
In a look ahead to the 2010 race for Senate, it appears both Russ Carnahan and Dick
Gephardt could give Kit Bond a run for his money if they chose to seek the seat. Bond
leads Carnahan 46-43 and Gephardt just 44-43 in hypothetical match ups. PPP showed
Robin Carnahan within the margin of error against Bond last month as well.
PPP surveyed 750 likely voters from August 13th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is
+/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
