Last week was mid-session break in the State Capitol. It gave me the opportunity to head home and spend time with my family and close friends. I even got to take a short vacation for four days. I was also able to meet with several of my constituents and local organizations and businesses in my district. Soon, the week came to an end and I headed to Jefferson City, ready to get back to business and reach across party lines to continue working for our state. Much to my dismay, my return was greeted with a shocking report from the Missouri Information Analysis Center. The report is a clear display that our freedoms and basic rights are now being bullied by Missouri’s governor and his appointed Public Safety Department.
As part of the Department of Public Safety’s intelligence gathering and dissemination to law enforcement agencies, the MIAC released a report with instructions as to how to identify members of the modern militia movement who may be domestic terrorists. The report, printed on state letterhead, points directly to Missouri citizens who support small government, gun rights, those who are pro-life and those who voted for Ron Paul, Bob Barr or Chuck Baldwin in the November 2008 election. The report accuses these people of being possible threats to our society. This means, if you drive down the street with a pro-life sticker on your car, you may be considered for criminal profiling by Missouri’s public safety officials and other citizens who may not believe the way you do.
Not only is this an act of political profiling, it is an infringement on our 1st and 2nd Amendment rights. Our great nation was founded on freedom; the freedom of speech, the freedom to have our own opinions and voice those opinions, the freedom of religion. These are all key components of the United States of America — our free country. American citizens should not be fearful that their beliefs regarding abortion, government size and other social issues separate them into terrorist categories. Unfortunately, Gov. Nixon doesn’t think there is anything wrong with this. He is throwing the ideals of our founding fathers out the window. In fact, the governor outwardly defends this practice by saying, “Getting information, especially public information, out of our fusion center out to local law enforcement agencies is what we do every day and what we’re going to continue to do. Any way they take that information and can analyze what the threat levels are is important to make sure the public stays safe.”
Undoubtedly, the MIAC report was an attempt by the governor to abuse his power and alienate those with conflicting beliefs. Not only is he infringing our basic rights, he is targeting right-wing groups. There is no mention of the left-wing groups related to his political party. If he is truly fearful of our Missouri citizens being criminals, he would include all groups; not just the side that opposes his personal beliefs. It looks to me like he’s against a third party and maybe the right side all together.
After much national and local media attention, the Department of Public Safety issued an apology. If you ask me, it wasn’t good enough. They apologized to Ron Paul, Bob Barr and Chuck Baldwin. They made no mention to those of you that they singled out for being pro-life, pro-guns, small government supporters, etc. Lt. Gov. Kinder called for the director of public safety, John Britt, to take administrative leave pending an investigation into this despicable political profiling done by MIAC. We can only hope he will follow the call.
Branson Official Government Handout Report March 25
Action taken by Branson Board of Aldermen at March 24, 2009 meeting
SECOND READING AND FINAL PASSAGE BILLS
City contracts with local non-profits for emergency services
Aldermen approved on final reading service contracts with four non-profit agencies to provide
temporary emergency services for the homeless and families and individuals in need.
$30,000 will go to Christian Action Ministries
$ 5,000 to the Salvation Army
$ 3,500 to the Women’s Crisis Center
$10,000 to Branson Church Army
Sewer and annexation agreement for new development gets approval
Aldermen approved a sewer and annexation agreement with Tuscany on the Lake. This
development is 17 acres on Highway 265 just north of Chateau on the Lake and will contain
whole ownership condominiums. The agreement requires Tuscany to comply with city codes for
construction and landscaping.
REGULAR AGENDA ITEMS (1st Reading)
Board approves agreement to fund Branson Arts Council
Board approved on first reading an agreement with the Branson Arts Council to provide funding
for community arts and cultural activities. The amount approved was $22,500. This item was
postponed two weeks ago when aldermen wanted more information on what programs and
services would be cut by the Arts Council as a result of this year’s funding, which was $18,000
less than in previous years.
Chamber of Commerce presents 4th quarter (Oct-Dec ’08) marketing report
Highlights:
Overall visitation in Branson during 2008 was about 8.1 million, down 3.7% or about
250,000 visitors from 2007.(This particular statement is intentionally misleading. The Chamber is referring to a two county area not Branson proper)
However, Branson’s sales tax revenues were up 1.9% and tourism tax revenues up 0.2%
in 2008. (This clarifies the note above)
Hotel room demand in 2008 was down 7.8% (People coming to Branson to shop from a 100 mile radius don't need hotels)
Sixty percent of visitors in 2008 came from 301 plus miles away; 25 percent from 101-
300 miles and 15% from 0-100 miles.
Average age of Branson visitor dropped from 58 to 57.
Percent of families visiting Branson in 2008 dropped from 44 to 37%.
Percent of first time visitors to Branson in ’08 was 23%.....up from 14% in ’07.
2009 Branson forecast:
Unrealistic to forecast significant growth in 2009. (This statement contradicts other statments proposed by the Branson Chamber of Commerce)
Early ’09 business activity in the Branson area shows some promise that Branson’s value,
location, product and marketing efforts may weather the stormy economy better than most
destinations, and could even lead to modest increases in visitation. (More accurate assesment than Mayor Presley's public campaign against the Branson Landing)
Taney County Health Department presented results of its 2008 Health Assessment
According to Robert Niezgoda of the Taney County Health Department, the results of the
2008 Health Assessment indicate the top three priorities for the county should be:
1. Tobacco use prevention (Great way to waste money on ads instead of addressing health care issues. This gives an excuse to waste money on media buys vs. non-smoking assistance)
2. Obesity, nutrition and physical activity
3. Child and family safety.
Niezgoda said other health priorities that need to be addressed include communicable
disease prevention and senior issues. He said the health department has increased educational
programs in the county to address these health issues, and has specifically targeted Branson and
Forsyth schools to conduct smoking prevention programs.
SECOND READING AND FINAL PASSAGE BILLS
City contracts with local non-profits for emergency services
Aldermen approved on final reading service contracts with four non-profit agencies to provide
temporary emergency services for the homeless and families and individuals in need.
$30,000 will go to Christian Action Ministries
$ 5,000 to the Salvation Army
$ 3,500 to the Women’s Crisis Center
$10,000 to Branson Church Army
Sewer and annexation agreement for new development gets approval
Aldermen approved a sewer and annexation agreement with Tuscany on the Lake. This
development is 17 acres on Highway 265 just north of Chateau on the Lake and will contain
whole ownership condominiums. The agreement requires Tuscany to comply with city codes for
construction and landscaping.
REGULAR AGENDA ITEMS (1st Reading)
Board approves agreement to fund Branson Arts Council
Board approved on first reading an agreement with the Branson Arts Council to provide funding
for community arts and cultural activities. The amount approved was $22,500. This item was
postponed two weeks ago when aldermen wanted more information on what programs and
services would be cut by the Arts Council as a result of this year’s funding, which was $18,000
less than in previous years.
Chamber of Commerce presents 4th quarter (Oct-Dec ’08) marketing report
Highlights:
Overall visitation in Branson during 2008 was about 8.1 million, down 3.7% or about
250,000 visitors from 2007.(This particular statement is intentionally misleading. The Chamber is referring to a two county area not Branson proper)
However, Branson’s sales tax revenues were up 1.9% and tourism tax revenues up 0.2%
in 2008. (This clarifies the note above)
Hotel room demand in 2008 was down 7.8% (People coming to Branson to shop from a 100 mile radius don't need hotels)
Sixty percent of visitors in 2008 came from 301 plus miles away; 25 percent from 101-
300 miles and 15% from 0-100 miles.
Average age of Branson visitor dropped from 58 to 57.
Percent of families visiting Branson in 2008 dropped from 44 to 37%.
Percent of first time visitors to Branson in ’08 was 23%.....up from 14% in ’07.
2009 Branson forecast:
Unrealistic to forecast significant growth in 2009. (This statement contradicts other statments proposed by the Branson Chamber of Commerce)
Early ’09 business activity in the Branson area shows some promise that Branson’s value,
location, product and marketing efforts may weather the stormy economy better than most
destinations, and could even lead to modest increases in visitation. (More accurate assesment than Mayor Presley's public campaign against the Branson Landing)
Taney County Health Department presented results of its 2008 Health Assessment
According to Robert Niezgoda of the Taney County Health Department, the results of the
2008 Health Assessment indicate the top three priorities for the county should be:
1. Tobacco use prevention (Great way to waste money on ads instead of addressing health care issues. This gives an excuse to waste money on media buys vs. non-smoking assistance)
2. Obesity, nutrition and physical activity
3. Child and family safety.
Niezgoda said other health priorities that need to be addressed include communicable
disease prevention and senior issues. He said the health department has increased educational
programs in the county to address these health issues, and has specifically targeted Branson and
Forsyth schools to conduct smoking prevention programs.
Branson Employee Turns Whistleblower Accuses City Administration of Fraud
 |
| From Branson Missouri |
Interim Planning and Development Director Ruth Denham alleged city employees are involved in a cover-up regarding building code shortcomings on a Lake Taneycomo lakefront project.
The allegations include accusations that city employees are intentionally keeping information from FEMA that buildings at the Branson Landing meet neither Branson Municipal Code nor National Flood Insurance Program requirements.
Denahn contends that that a legitimate Certificate of Occupancy could spur an audit from FEMA which couldn't pass without city employees committing fraud. Denham went on to state in a letter verbalized to Branson Alderman last night that she along with other employees are being pressured to sign off on Certificate of Occupancy documents.
Sam Proffer, Branson's former floodplain administrator was cited by Denham as an employee who refused to sign off on CO's resulting in a "resignation under pressure".
The engineering firm Benham was said to be uncooperative after hiring an administrator to replace Proffer even after receiving $1,300,000 from the city to oversee the highly successful waterfront project.
Denham explained to the Board of Alderman that detailed information was sent to the interim city attorney, Branson Mayor Raeanne Presley and Branson City Administrator Dean Kruithof. The only response she received was from Kruihof who stated Denhan, "was very upset I put the white elephant in writing"
During the meeting, Denham stated "Those who aren't playing along with the cover up game are resigning, or being terminated, for failing to play according to the morals of their supervisors".
The city issued an immediate response promising to quickly address the issue. to selective press outlets before Denham's allegations could be published in full.
Branson area charities fighting poverty merge
March 13, 2009, Forsyth, MO. Gift of Hope, Inc. has recently acquired My Neighbor’s Pantry, a local food pantry serving over 1,800 people monthly in Northeast Taney County. The Pantry has been in operation for the past six years, however the building used for its operations has recently been leased to another entity leaving the Pantry in a position to shut its doors. In recent months Gift of Hope’s Board of Directors has been considering expanding its programs to include a food pantry. When they became aware of the situation My Neighbor’s Pantry was facing, the Board recognized an immediate means of expansion through a mutually beneficial acquisition. Gift of Hope founder, Anthony Collier, states, “We saw an opportunity for Gift of Hope to expand its outreach to families in need and are excited about this acquisition and the ways in which we can continue to grow this program in the future.” Gift of Hope, Inc. has been serving the needs of children and families in Taney county for over 20 years. Currently Gift of Hope sponsors programs to provide children with school supplies, food and clothing. In addition, Gift of Hope provides assistance to qualified families in need of help with rent, utilities, food, and Christmas gifts, particularly during the winter months when the need can be the greatest in Taney County. My Neighbor’s Pantry will reopen its doors as a new program of Gift of Hope, Inc. at its new location at 10275 East State Highway 76 in Forsyth on Tuesday, March 17, 2009 under the direction of Robin Collier. The Pantry’s hours of operation will be 12:00-3:00 p.m. Tuesday through Friday. ### For more information about Gift of Hope’s My Neighbor’s Pantry or how you can help contact Robin Collier at (417) 546-8098
Branson Airport Announces New Airline Extends Service with Sun Country Airline
Sun County Airlines is the second provider to offer air transportation directly to Branson. The Branson airport is scheduled to open May 11, 2009.
Branson Considers Marketing to Germany
An effort to expand Branson tourism without altering demographics has some local politicos asking if we should spend tax dollars overseas. We're not sure how well the marketing message will translate into sales but we were able to translate Sam Clanton's report on the topic from KRZK into the German's native tongue:
Der Tourismus Gemeinschaft Enhancement District Board of Directors verbrachte einen guten Teil seiner Sitzung am heutigen Nachmittag über einen Vorschlag auf den Markt Branson in Deutschland. Hier ist Dan Lennon Branson der Industrie-und Handelskammer ...Discussion on the issue including a video presentation is slated for the TCED meeting scheduled March 10th.
Cut 1
Der Vorstand erwägt die Zuteilung von bis zu 20-tausend Dollar für die Forschung den deutschen Markt für amerikanische Tourismus. Auf der Hand für die Sitzung wurde Meike Wolf von US-Correspondents.com ...
Cut 2
Die TCED Bord wird am Dienstag morgen wieder zu hören, einen vollständigen Vorschlag von Wolff und ihr Ehemann Till Jürgens. Vorstandsmitglied Ann McDowell unterstützt internationale Marketing-Anstrengungen, ist aber nicht sicher, ob das die bestmögliche Nutzung des Verwaltungsrates an der Zeit ...
Schneiden Sie 3
Vorstandsmitglied Bill Skains gemeinsame ein paar Gedanken ...
Cut 4
Auch während der Sitzung heute, ein Jahr-End-Destination-Marketing-Analyse wurde von Dan Lennon.
Stimulate Me
Ten days ago the Missouri Capital Press Core was bored to tears awaiting the shuffle for stimulus jobs the Missouri Congress would eventually debate.
The first question, now being answered, is what leverage will departments have to reallocate money to different programs.. The key word here is leverage and how much of the money can be used to offset already budgeted funds.
The multi-billion dollar handout has kicked local geo-political entities into high gear and Missouri Governor Jay Nixon launched a website last week to ensure anyone with a good idea can contribute their two cents with a potential multi-million dollar return.
Conservative Missouri Senator Matt Bartle submits, "Missouri's current economic development policy is seriously flawed and tremendously beholden to those with political influence." in his weekly editorial posted on Branson Agent.
During the Missouri Republican Convention in Branson last summer debate over the Fair-Tax which proposes elimination of income tax replace by sales tax created unlikely bedfellows.
From Chad Livengood reporting from Jefferson City for the Springfield News-Leader:
As details about regulations regarding stimulus money, journalists won't be calling any of it monkey business. But the Missourian reports on the first project to receive stimulus money dubbed by some as - "Missouri's Bridge to Nowhere"
Assembled by Darin Codon
The first question, now being answered, is what leverage will departments have to reallocate money to different programs.. The key word here is leverage and how much of the money can be used to offset already budgeted funds.
The multi-billion dollar handout has kicked local geo-political entities into high gear and Missouri Governor Jay Nixon launched a website last week to ensure anyone with a good idea can contribute their two cents with a potential multi-million dollar return.
Conservative Missouri Senator Matt Bartle submits, "Missouri's current economic development policy is seriously flawed and tremendously beholden to those with political influence." in his weekly editorial posted on Branson Agent.
During the Missouri Republican Convention in Branson last summer debate over the Fair-Tax which proposes elimination of income tax replace by sales tax created unlikely bedfellows.
From Chad Livengood reporting from Jefferson City for the Springfield News-Leader:
Rep. Ed Emery, R-Lamar, and Rep. Chris Kelly, D-Columbia, presented separate bills to a House committee that advocate for the creation of a system that taxes people based on how much they consume, not how much they earn.
Emery's bill calls for raising the state sales tax from 4.225 percent to 5.11 percent and eliminating the 6 percent personal income tax and 6.25 percent tax on business earnings.
The tax structure is what's known as a "fair tax," because it taxes people equally based on their spending and gets rid of all exemptions and refundable tax credits.
As details about regulations regarding stimulus money, journalists won't be calling any of it monkey business. But the Missourian reports on the first project to receive stimulus money dubbed by some as - "Missouri's Bridge to Nowhere"
Assembled by Darin Codon
Brsnson Not Affected By Missouri Department of Tourism Funding Cuts
Vonda Sheets re-emerges with this diddy published by the Springfield Business Journal.
Taney County Hot For Stimulus Money
Taney County Industrial Development Authority - Press Release
The opportunity is huge, but the clock is ticking,” stated Ken Kline, Chairman of the Taney County Industrial Development Authority, to the Taney County Commission on Thursday, February 26. “Hundreds of municipalities and Counties, and many states, have pre-packaged their proposals to receive favor in this stimulus legislation and are well on their way to applying for, and getting, the requested funds.” Kline went on to assert that as a community, we’re already behind schedule in discussing potential benefits to Taney County and that the Taney County Industrial Development Authority proposes immediate action on the part of the Commission to address this via the budget and personnel.
A motion was made by Commissioner Strafuss, seconded by Commissioner Strahan, and duly passed to increase funding for the Office of Economic Development and for Industrial Development Authority special projects. The Taney County Industrial Development Authority proposed a restructuring of the Office of Economic Development and the immediate hiring of two full time personnel. A third position, Office of Grants Facilitator, is envisioned to be more than one person and not a County employee.
Ron Houseman is joining Taney County on an interim basis as Stimulus Funding Coordinator/Government Liaison. Houseman served as the Taney County Clerk from 1979 through 1998 and held a number of leadership positions during his tenure in office including President of both the Missouri Association of Counties and the Missouri County Clerks Association, Chairman of the President’s Advisory Council for University Extension, Chairman of the National Association of Counties Environmental Committee and a host of other leadership positions. Houseman currently serves on both the Board of Directors of the National Association of Counties and the Missouri Association of Counties.
Houseman’s immediate duties are to identify current-need, County-level projects, infrastructure improvements, replacements of shovel-ready near-term needs within Taney County that could be funded in whole or in part via recently passed federal stimulus legislation or state and regional programs.
Joan Chowning has been hired as Community Liaison for Economic, Community & Infrastructure Development. Chowning was Economic Development Director for Taney County in 2006 and 2007 and holds a master’s degree in Communication from the University of Arkansas. Her immediate duties will be to support the effort to identify projects in Taney County and advance the effort to pursue stimulus legislation funding or funding through state and regional programs.
Commissioner Strahan commented that “Taney County is very fortunate to have two individuals of such high caliber with the experience, knowledge, and contacts as Mr. Houseman and Ms. Chowning.”
Commissioner Strafuss stated, “The County had been asked to do something to get a share of the revenues offered through the stimulus plan. Hiring Ron Houseman and Joan Chowning was the best step possible for heading us in the right direction.”
The Industrial Development Authority (IDA) would like to see a minimum of $2 million of programs and related funding and resource allocations incoming or approved within 2009, however, the IDA believes more funding can be realized with proper personnel and consultants.
The opportunity is huge, but the clock is ticking,” stated Ken Kline, Chairman of the Taney County Industrial Development Authority, to the Taney County Commission on Thursday, February 26. “Hundreds of municipalities and Counties, and many states, have pre-packaged their proposals to receive favor in this stimulus legislation and are well on their way to applying for, and getting, the requested funds.” Kline went on to assert that as a community, we’re already behind schedule in discussing potential benefits to Taney County and that the Taney County Industrial Development Authority proposes immediate action on the part of the Commission to address this via the budget and personnel.
A motion was made by Commissioner Strafuss, seconded by Commissioner Strahan, and duly passed to increase funding for the Office of Economic Development and for Industrial Development Authority special projects. The Taney County Industrial Development Authority proposed a restructuring of the Office of Economic Development and the immediate hiring of two full time personnel. A third position, Office of Grants Facilitator, is envisioned to be more than one person and not a County employee.
Ron Houseman is joining Taney County on an interim basis as Stimulus Funding Coordinator/Government Liaison. Houseman served as the Taney County Clerk from 1979 through 1998 and held a number of leadership positions during his tenure in office including President of both the Missouri Association of Counties and the Missouri County Clerks Association, Chairman of the President’s Advisory Council for University Extension, Chairman of the National Association of Counties Environmental Committee and a host of other leadership positions. Houseman currently serves on both the Board of Directors of the National Association of Counties and the Missouri Association of Counties.
Houseman’s immediate duties are to identify current-need, County-level projects, infrastructure improvements, replacements of shovel-ready near-term needs within Taney County that could be funded in whole or in part via recently passed federal stimulus legislation or state and regional programs.
Joan Chowning has been hired as Community Liaison for Economic, Community & Infrastructure Development. Chowning was Economic Development Director for Taney County in 2006 and 2007 and holds a master’s degree in Communication from the University of Arkansas. Her immediate duties will be to support the effort to identify projects in Taney County and advance the effort to pursue stimulus legislation funding or funding through state and regional programs.
Commissioner Strahan commented that “Taney County is very fortunate to have two individuals of such high caliber with the experience, knowledge, and contacts as Mr. Houseman and Ms. Chowning.”
Commissioner Strafuss stated, “The County had been asked to do something to get a share of the revenues offered through the stimulus plan. Hiring Ron Houseman and Joan Chowning was the best step possible for heading us in the right direction.”
The Industrial Development Authority (IDA) would like to see a minimum of $2 million of programs and related funding and resource allocations incoming or approved within 2009, however, the IDA believes more funding can be realized with proper personnel and consultants.
Branson Real Estate Report Published by Commercial One Brokers
Prepared BY; Commercial One Brokers LLC
500 West Main, Suite 302-A, Branson Financial Center
Branson, MO. 65616
wwwCommercialOneBrokers.com 417-334-3149
On behalf of The Commercial One Brokers team, we are happy to present the 2009 Commercial Real Estate Forecast for the Branson/Hollister market. Needless to say, 2008 was a difficult year for anyone in either the commercial or residential real estate business.
Commercial One Brokers continues to collect and report vacancy and absorption rates in the various commercial market sectors in order to provide assistance to you in making lending, investment or leasing decisions. We also attempt to collect information on all new up-coming commercial projects in order to project growth or contraction of the various commercial market sectors. We now track nearly three million total square feet of office and retail space in our data base. No other commercial real estate firm can provide you this local insight and this degree of detail.
Branson began to feel the negative effects of the national economy mid-year 2008. In addition to the weather catastrophes that plagued our area in the first half of the year along with the high gas prices, it is rather amazing that our market has held up as well as it has. By and large we are not significantly over-built in any commercial category other than Class A office. When the market does return, Branson will show positive absorption and price appreciation much faster than those high-flying markets that must first absorb large amounts of un-sold and vacant inventory.
We believe that this area currently offers some great buying and leasing opportunities that have not been available for several years. As the leading source for commercial real estate in the Branson / Hollister markets we are excited to work with all of you in the coming year. Commercial One Brokers is your source for local commercial real estate knowledge…that is all we sell.
Sincerely,
Stephen N. Critchfield Robert Huels, Jr. CCIM Doug Edens
Broker/Partner Broker/Partner Broker/Salesperson
Hospitality
© Commercial One Brokers LLC
Because much of the commercial business is affected by household growth, we also watch the area’s housing market. As reflected in the chart to the left, residential sales peaked in 2005 and have slowly dropped each year since.
The slow down in area sales have been created by the slow down in the national economy and the inability of those relocating to the Tri-Lakes area to sell existing homes in other parts of the country.
Based on sales information collected from The Tri-Lakes Multiple Listing Service by Cooper Real Estate Consulting the number of closings in the Tri- Lakes area dropped a total of 26% from 2007 sales. In addition, Cooper projects that the total number oflistings dropped by 89 units from last years numbers…although nearly an all time record number (see chart to the left).
The bottom of the chart reflects the number of listings in 2003 and the top line are the listings for 2009. During the past five years, there have been on average of 1,500 to 1,900 homes listed an on the market in the MLS. As of December 31, 2008 … 2,447 homes were listed in the system.
Our 2008 report projected that sales volumes would drop to the levels produced in 2003 of 1350 to 1400 units. The final closing numbers reported at the end of 2008 totaled 1320 units. It is generally agreed, that the local market is approximately 6-12 months behind the national market and we will continue to see slowing sales even as the national sales begin to stabilize. The good news is the area is not markedly over-built and this market should easily rebound when the national market does.
The average sales price as reported by the MLS is down just 3.9% when compared to last years sales. Other more detailed analysis argues that most of the sales price drops were in the over $350,000 and up price ranges with the average prices of homes sold in the $250,000 and under range could have shown no decrease in prices or even some small appreciation. Of course the foreclosure sales, although small also would affect the overall numbers.
The “hottest” segments of the market as reported by Cooper were generally $175,000 and under in both Stone and Taney counties. This segment of the market continues to have the highest number of overall sales since it
attracts the largest number of prospective buyers. Cooper reports that “56% of the Stone County market is under $175,000 while 71% of the Taney County market is under $175,000. Overall, 77% of the entire Tri-lakes market appears to be in the under $225,000 price range.
Sales and listing activity seem to confirm the fact that the lower to mid- priced homes are still in balance to perhaps in short supply and the homes…certainly over the $500,000 price range are over-supplied and will take some time to get supply back into balance.
Again, the Midwest and the Tri-Lakes area has not seen the severe market drops than many of the “high-flying” parts of the country have.
Residential Sales Drop 26% In 2008
2004 1982
2005 2203
2006 2126
2007 1774
2008 1320
© Commercial One Brokers LLC
OFFICE MARKET CONTINUES TO BE OVER-BUILT
Vacancy rates have reached 36% as the local office market suddenly softened in the last quarter of 2008. After improving to less than 20% during mid year last year, the national financial issues have hit the local real estate, mortgage brokers, construction and title companies who have either moved to smaller less expensive offices or have gone out of business.
In addition to the sudden increase in vacancies, a new 36,000 sq. ft. speculative “Class A” building has been put on the market and is nearing completion. Several 9000 to 10000 sq ft. buildings are also being built in Branson Hills. Two of the buildings are pre-leased however; some additional space the market.
Average Leasing Rates
$12.69 per sq ft per yr. NNN
Rental Rates Range From $8.00 to $16.00 per sq ft. per year NNN
36% Vacancy Rate
Source: Commercial One Brokers LLC. Data Base. Includes all multi-tenant properties of 5000 sq ft. located in the
city limits.
MANCHESTER 5 OFFICE BUILDING
HWY 248
Commercial One Brokers recently completed a lease with The Veterans Administration for over 25,000 sq. ft. in the Executive Center at Gretna and Hwy 248. It is expected that the VA will be able to occupy this space by late April. The VA clinic will employ approximately 80 professionals and are expected to see over 8000 patients a year at this new facility.
Effective rental rates have remained at an average of $12.69 per sq ft. market wide, but concessions are now being offered either through a rate ramp up, increased tenant improvement allowances or free rent for a period of time in return for a 3 to 5-year lease term. Market wide rental rates range from approximately $8 a sq. ft. to just over $16.00 per sq ft NNN depending upon location and quality of facility. Due to downsizing, demand for smaller suites (1000 sq ft or less) have increased noticeably.
RETAIL SECTOR HOLDS ITS OWN
A market-wide negative absorption rate that totaled over 43,000 sq ft has increased the retail vacancy rates from 8.59% in mid 2008 to 12.57% by December 31, 2008.
The Branson area retail market has remained remarkably stable. The retail sector was stronger in the first half of 2008 then softened the second half. Some store closings have occurred, however, much less then the national or even the state markets have experienced. Until recently, Branson has not been high on the list for expansion of most national retailers until the opening of Branson Landing and the Branson Hills development.
Most of the drastic downsizing and outright closings have been these national retailers…some of who were located at The Landing. Regional and local retailers have always come and gone, and the frequency of closings does not seem to have increased dramatically as yet. Additional square footage has been added to the market and was the major contributing factor for reduction of the overall occupancy rates last year.
We at Commercial One Brokers have been busy with new tenants looking at the availability as well as, yes, some upgrading in local as well as increased space for several retailers in the area. While nationally the retail sector has seen numerous closings of larger retailers, Branson had several coming on-line in late 08 and early 09. New smaller regional stores are looking to our market for expansion and the much smaller “Mom & Pop” start ups are still springing up throughout the area. Within the last few weeks however, we have been advised by several of the regional retailers that they are putting their expansion projects on hold until more is settled with the national economy.
Over all, our company’s leasing activity has shown major increases for the first quarter of 2009 over last years activities for the same period. Upon analysis…the leasing activity has been either at the high end of the rate scale and or at the lowest end of the scale. The mid-range ($14 to $15 per sq ft. NNN) has seen the softest demand.
In our communications with local banks and regional financial institutions, we are not currently seeing a large amount of default issues in this sector, but do concur that the possibility is very strong for some failures to occur. Credit is going to be hard to come by and retailers will be under the gun, pinched by contracting consumer spending.
Communication and negotiations will be the key to evading future vacancies. It is important that landlords or landlord management representative know when tenants are in trouble and stay ahead of the curve when a vacancy is inevitable. Re-leasing the space will take time and the sooner the problem is identified the better. Several of the late 2008 vacancies have been filled due to advanced knowledge of the tenant’s financial situation.
The Commercial One Brokers team are first and foremost salespeople and inherently optimistic. The numbers we are tracking do show a decrease in occupancy and a definite slow down in leasing activity during the last half of 2008. As with previous forecasts, we believe the properties that are well located and that are well maintained will retain stronger occupancies and will be more stable, while those built in lesser locations and are poorly designed and managed, will suffer more transience and lower rental rates.
HOSPITALITY MARKET
REFLECTS NATIONAL MARKET CONDITIONS
OPERATING PERFORMANCE
After several years of strong growth, the local hospitality market began to reflect the national market conditions. Again, this area performed at levels equal to our typical competitors and much better than the other “hot” national markets.
The results also reflect the areas drop in total visitation (- 3.7% ) and the fact that more visitors came from closer-in (100 -300 miles) and stayed a shorter amount of time (4.25 nights). We suspect that these numbers also were affected by a slow down in timeshare sales and mini-vacs during the last half of the year. The slow down in the timeshare industry will greatly affect the local occupancy and room revenues in 2009.
YEAR OCCUPANCY ROOM
RATE ROOM
SUPPLY ROOM
DEMAND ROOM
REVENUE
2007
47.3% $70.17
5,520,883
2,610.043
183,133,919
2008
% CHG
43.1
-8.8%
$73.19
+4.3%
5,583,126
+1.1%
2,407,658
-7.8%
176,210,090
-3.8%
SOURCE: Smith Travel Research: EOY Performance Comparison
Visitor Numbers: Branson Lakes Area Chamber and CVB
RESALE MARKET
Presently sixteen area motel properties are offered for sale. Three properties were reported sold in 2008 or a total of 212 rooms. This reflects a major slow down in hospitality sales…again a fact that is occurring nationwide. All three of the sold properties were flagged properties and sold for an average of $26,924. per room. It appears that selling cap rates ranged between 11 and 12%.
Tighter financing requirements will severely limit the number of motels sold in 2009. Not only will buyers be required to make a much bigger equity investment (40% to 50%) and they must also show a successful operating track record.
VISITOR NUMBERS
VISITOR TRENDS
• Total Visitation down approximately -3.7% (Note: This number reflects region not Branson proper)
• More First Time Visitors and slightly fewer repeat visitors
• On-line bookings continue to increase
• Increase in number of visitors renting Condominiums during their stay
• Of those who flew to Branson only 56.4% flew through the Springfield/Branson airport
• Average amount spent per visitor increased to $881.11 from $826.83
Source: Branson Lakes Area Chamber of Commerce and CVB
7,214
7,330
7,984
8,398
8,089
6,600
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
PROFESSIONAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT
BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT
Last annual report Commercial One Brokers announced we were creating a new property management company by partnering with Maples Properties in Springfield. The new company, Maples Properties of Branson, LLC, is proud to announce that we are now involved in the management of approximately 420,000 square feet of retail and office space in the Branson and Hollister area.
Our services range from total operations to maintenance only to short term REO rehab and staging. We have enlisted a strong team of professionals and are capable of handling all aspects of a property from conception to occupancy stabilization thru leasing or disposition. Our team will oversee planning and construction, budgeting and accounting, maintenance and repairs as well as infill oversight. We have legal representation available for collections and evictions if necessary and sub-let legal reviews for mitigations. This in conjunction with our leasing and sales efforts, allow a property owner to be as involved or uninvolved in the operations as they desire.
We believe that Tenants have more appreciation for the properties as they see professional teams of workers actively on site working on issues immediately. Landlords experience savings of time and money due to our extensive contacts and multi property contracts with service suppliers and vendors.
With the possible increase in foreclosures, we have added a new list of available services to our property management program. Lenders can have our team take foreclosed properties from possession day conditions to fully market ready condition and maintained at that level until sale. We offer the services of a full REO department to out of town and local lenders.
PARTIAL CLIENT LIST - Leasing and Total Management
Branson Vista Plaza, LP., Houston TX.
Vista Plaza Hwy 76
GCP Grand Village, LLC. Green Courte Partners. Lake Forest, Illinois
The Grand Village Hwy 76
Branson Executive Center L.P. Houston TX.
VA Medical Clinic Gretna Rd and Hwy 248
Branson Gretna Plaza, L.P. Houston TX.
Gretna Plaza Hwy 248 at Gretna Rd.
JW Franklin Co. Warrensburg, MO.
The Falls Shopping Center Hwy 165
Mercury , LLC. Las Vegas, NV
Dixie Station Hwy 76
First aircraft to land at the
new Branson Airport.
Opening May 11, 2009
OUR THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS
Many of our clients ask us about what we think is going to happen with this market. Of course we don’t have any better idea than anyone else, but that doesn’t stop us from sharing our opinions. So here are just a few of our random thoughts and opinions as we believe it will affect the area’s commercial real estate market…for what it is worth.
1. Markets are moving from Greed to Fear….Locally most sellers haven’t really re-priced their property and or they simply are going to set on the side lines and wait for the prices to rise, if they don’t have to sell. Cap rates have probably risen by 75 to 125 basis points for top properties and more than 200 basis points on lesser quality properties.
a. There is a lot of 'hold' and 'wait and see' going on now because absent real transaction volume, many owners have the attitude that until trades start clearing the market, they don't know what the real values are. Appraisers are having a very
difficult time valuing properties.
2. Property owners will be walking a tight rope in 2009 with lenders pulling one end and tenants on the other looking for better deals.
a. Building Owners will be getting financing pressure to make sure their buildings are occupied. The dilemma will be…if I lower my rents and give a concession, then I don’t get the revenue I’ve had. The lender then will say our deal isn’t worth as
much and will either try to call my loan or ask for more equity to be pumped into the deal.
3. Inflation is coming….it has to with this much money being pumped into the economy. The money supply is increasing at never before seen rates. Some of us remember…to much money chasing too few products. Then high interest rates follow. We are going to see this again.
4. Through a combination of the tough financial markets and the “limited-growth” attitude fostered by some area politicians, those who own properties are going to find that they will be worth a whole lot more when the market does return to something called normal.
5. As is usually the case, those with cash are going to be able to take advantage and receive big returns in the future and those who aren’t afraid to lock in good long-term lease terms will surely benefit.
6. A lot of money is setting on the sidelines waiting on a better deal, some confidence or both.
Five Stages Of The Market After A Slow Down
a. Owners think property is worth more than we are telling them.
b. Ok…I’m not selling unless you get me more than it is worth.
c. I have to sell…what do we have to do in order to sell?
d. I don’t think we will see another good market again…
e. This is the bottom and the best time to buy.
If you have interest in talking further about the area’s commercial real estate market…we would like to talk with you.
417-334-3149 500 West Main Street Suite 302 Branson, MO. 65616
www.CommercialOneBrokers.com
© Commercial One Brokers LLC
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